Specific Data Uses (demographic, socio-economic, estimates and projections)

Raymond Dengel
Edinboro University

In our setting students and faculty in Nursing and Social Work, when doing work in community analysis, find census data to be essential. In Social Work, the students look carefully at data as it pertains to poverty level. They are interested in the 1980 and 1990 data and the projected data beyond the 1990 counts. Both groups but are interested in the demographic breakdowns by age and race. The Nursing students are especially interested in the data because of the growing emphasis upon community based health services. They use every source available from the traditional print to the CD and the web and internet sites.

John Snyder
SBDC - Gannon University

The SBDC at Gannon University uses census information regularly to help our clients determine demographic statistics as well as to estimate if their target market is large enough for their proposed business. Population figures help clients determine if a specific area is growing or declining in number, therefore helping determine site feasibility.

Michael Golembiewski
Berks County Planning Commission

A Major retailer wanted to know the characteristics of his potential sales area prior to building a multi-million dollar department store;

The City of Reading Planning Commission has contacted us numerous times for detailed information at the block and block-group level for various Neighborhood Studies being conducted as part of different grant applications and also as part of the overall City Comprehensive Plan Revision.

Population estimates and projections are a major driving force (no pun intended) used in the Berks County Travel Demand Forecasting Model. This model, required by federal Clean Air act Amendments for Berks, gives detailed information on traffic and air quality levels based on projected roadway development and population trends;

The County is now undertaking a ten-year revision of its 1991 Berks County Comprehensive Plan. Population estimates and projections are key in helping to determine future land use implications.

Bob Schwartz
Southwestern Pennsylvania Regional Planning Commission

We are presently working on our population forecasts by municipality for our nine-county region. We control county estimates to the census estimates. We use data to estimate municipalities and census block groups tat are economically distressed with our nine-county region.

Dan Hilger
Economic Development Council of Northeastern Pennsylvania

I could give you many specific examples of how the Economic Development Council of Northeastern Pennsylvania uses population demographics and projections. Two specific examples are our Penn's Northeast Locational Data Base which is used in external marketing. The major chambers of commerce in a nine-county region belong to Penn's Northeast. They all use this shared data base in providing information to prospective companies. This data base has both current and projected demographics. Another specific use of demographics in our case is site-specific location analysis which we do for both real estate developers and companies looking for best location.

Cynthia Laurash
Duquesne University SBDC

A business client, planning a day care center in a low-income neighborhood, needed to justify her business proposal to a lender. She needed to document total population and the number of households with children in her target age groups. We gathered that information for her. We also accessed and provided a US Census report ton the status of day care needs and of day care providers in the US. The client was able to use this in her business plan.

Another client wanted to site an upscale home decoration retail store. She understood the type of customer most likely to patronize her establishment and she needed to decide which community best reflected her customer profile. We gathered census data on households, household income, age, and occupation for various communities and ranked them so she could make a comparison. These data were supplemented with other data on age groups, population, and occupation. The client used this information to evaluate various areas of the county and then several specific sites. She is currently negotiating a lease and plans to open her business this summer.

These two examples also show how population estimates are important to our business clients. The data help them make sound business decisions regarding customers and site location. Economic data are also valuable. We can gauge competition and market share in various industry sectors by looking at sales, employee size, and payroll, especially if we can evaluate trends over time. Besides facilitating decision-making by business owners, the data often support requests for business loan funds and are incorporated into business plans.

James C. Hughes
Professor of Geography and Environmental Studies
Slippery Rock University of Pennsylvania

I was asked by the Dean of Arts and Sciences at Slippery Rock University to compile information on the population living within various distances of New Castle, Pennsylvania. The data were to be used by an individual who is considering starting a private school in New Castle. I used data for municipalities and aggregated them for various distances from New Castle. Some of the items that I provided were related to total population, age, income, education, and housing.

I have students in my regional planning class select a Pennsylvania county and then, over the course of the semester, compile various information about the county and propose some plans for the county. In one exercise census data are used by students in the class to identify the economic base. Employment in the county is compared with that for the United States as a whole.

In another exercise, students use curve-fitting techniques to project the population of a county. Their projections are then compared with projections that were made by professional demographers. We can also project from a date in the past (1980 perhaps) and ten see what actually occurred in 1990. One conclusion that often emerges is that there are dangers in using curve-fitting techniques with past data to make projections.

I am President of the Board of Trustees of the Grove City Community Library. We use population estimates to compare the per capita financial contributions of our local municipalities to the library. In the case of a rapidly growing municipality, their annual contribution may no longer be equitable on a per capita basis compared to a municipality that is growing slowly or not at all.

Laura Hull
Small Business Development Center

Used the data to find the number and types of Pennsylvania exports.

County business patterns. This information is for clients who want to know what kind of competitors are in the neighborhood.

A client was interested in starting a personal care home. We used the information to find population (over 65) in group home settings to help determine the potential market.

To find the unemployment rates for the six county area.

Michael Rimer
AICP

Two examples of how our constituents have used census data:

Municipal and County Comprehensive Plans/CDBG - the Census provides a variety of data used in these studies which is extremely useful in land use, park and recreation, public services, transportation and housing planning and policy development. Our planning program also involves municipal planning assistance activities and CDBG- related public improvement project activities for small communities. Data at the municipal, tract, block group and block level are often utilized in support of local planning activities and CDBG projects.

As an ADC, we provide census data to small businesses seeking data for their market studies and business plans. The companies we have assisted in our area have ranged from "mom and pop" pizza shops to The Limited clothing store chain. We have also supported agencies such as the Dauphin County Department of Economic Development and the Capital Regional Economic Development Corporation in their economic planning too.

With current and anticipated population growth being an important component of our land use policy and planning activities these days, we will be more involved monitoring population trends at the County and Regional level in the future. Over the past few years, provided population estimate data to real estate appraisers quite often. They use this data to define local market trends and to justify their property valuation activities. I have also provided estimate information for a least one school system planning consulting firm.

The newest "wave" of land use planning projects here at TCRPC are based on the concept of "land needs," which means attempting to determine, plan for and provide only the amount of land for development (e.g., housing, businesses, industry and public space/parks) necessary for the anticipated population (people and housing) over a particular period of time. Obviously, population projections are critical to this planning approach. Also, as a Municipal Planning Organization (MPO) in the State and Federal Highway planning program, population projections have an important place in transportation planning. Specifically, population projections are critical components of our transportation network computer modeling activities. Other local projections and trends related to employment, land use/development, and automobile and transit usage are important components of the model as well. As TCRPC attempts to link land use and transportation planning together, population projections become an important "common denominator" in this effort.

Dione Cahillane
University of Pittsburgh SBDC

Info from the 1990 census on annual household income was used for a client opening a business in the South Hills of Pittsburgh. My client needed to know household incomes for the counties of Allegheny and Washington, as well as specific towns within these counties.

Another client needed annual household income, population estimates and new home construction for the North Hills of Pittsburgh. The client is opening a retail store in Ross Park Mall located North of Pittsburgh.

Another example from our Washington County Outreach office has used the population estimates/projections for a client looking to start a day care center. The client needed projections for different age groups.

Sandy Moore
Pennsylvania Department of Public Welfare

Program planning - looking at dynamics of change and anticipating the impacts of changes on clients. Targeting services to clients.

Evaluation and data analysis - looking at clients served and comparing/contrasting utilization rates across counties.

Looking at specific populations by income and poverty status (Including percentages of poverty), racial and ethnic categories, household composition, disability, work status, etc.

A lot of our program dollars are allocated by population and poverty status by county.

Steven Nelson
Montgomery County Planning Commission

Use of Census Data:

The Montgomery County Planning Commission prepares comprehensive plans for many of the municipalities in our county. We use mostly census data to describe the demographic profile of a particular community in these plans.

We provide census information to nursing students at Gwynedd Mercy College who are preparing papers on their community as part of a class assignment.

We use estimates to answer public inquiries about population growth, specifically from market researchers and potential small business operators who need to know if an area has the growth necessary to support their business.

We use projections as an essential input to a traffic model which projects traffic volumes and level of service at intersections, which is then used for highway planning purposes (via PADoT's 12 Year TIP).

Lauris Olson
Van Pelt Library - University of Pennsylvnia

A Lower Bucks County fire department wanted TIGER/Line street information or 1990 Census Census tract Street Index for lower Bucks County and eastern Montgomery County. Although they were part of the regional 911 system, they wanted to develop in-vehicle address lookup capability using laptop computers. They were also concerned that their 911 system did not provide them with sufficient information on streets outside their municipality and wanted street information from surrounding municipalities and the adjacent county, just to be prepared.

Penn faculty and students have been conducting long-term research and curriculum support programs in the Philadelphia public schools.

In one middle school, the program has studied nutritional status of middle school students over many years.

In another middle school, the program performs lead testing and implements abatement procedures.

Both programs require extensive small-area demographic, socioeconomic, and detailed housing data for each school's sending area, data that are only available through the decennial census. These programs have received national recognition and the W.K. Kellogg Foundation has recently provided grant support.

Penn faculty and students have been conducting long-term research on the Mill Creek watershed in West Philadelphia through the West Philadelphia Landscape Project. The original impetus of this project was to link the course of the long-buried urban creek to changes in demographic, socioeconomic, and housing patterns over time. For instance, using small-area decennial census data from 1940 through 1990, researchers were able to relate the location of vacant houses and low property values to specific structural elements in the underground drainage system. Plans are underway to include decennial census schedule data back to 1850 and to expand the Mill Creek project into a teaching tool for neighborhood schools. This program is nationally recognized.

Similar projects run through Penn's Cartographic Modeling Laboratory include using

population and housing data with municipal data to identify neighborhoods in distress, and to develop statistical tools to identify areas victimized by mortgage discrimination. These programs are also nationally recognized.

Hospital of the University of Pennsylvania physician-researchers have been using small-area census data to analyze patterns of healthcare provision, as well as epidemiological patterns of disease and injury. Typical requests are for socioeconomic characteristics of individuals matching some profile in a county or county subdivision, or for socio-economic characteristics of all individuals within several geographic areas. For instance:

West and Southwest Philadelphia census tract data for gunshot wound victims admitted to HUP's emergency room.

West Philadelphia census tract data for suicides and attempted suicides, both processed through the Philadelphia Police Department and through HUP's emergency room.

Tri-state (PA, NY, NJ) ZIP Code data for HMO ambulatory care admission rates.

Philadelphia-area minor civil division data and small-area decennial census data for the characteristics of Asian Americans, for an Independence Blue Cross study.

Philadelphia small-area data on school-age Asians, to identify public schools with large Asian populations for a study on depression needs assistance.

Population counts by sex by 5-year age categories, 1990 Census and all subsequent years for Philadelphia and surrounding eight counties, for bio-statistics baseline database.

Household median income data for 500 ZIP Codes nationwide for eye disorders treatment research.

Philadelphia small-area data on aged population, for research on medical assistance to women aged 5 to 64.

Wharton School researchers and students, as well as small business owners and entrepreneurs, use decennial census data for business planning. For instance:

Wharton School Marketing students, under contract to a Philadelphia area French-language school, used 1990 Census PUMS data and 1990 Census summary data to identify desirable ZIP Codes for mail solicitations advertising the startup of a French-language private school: they wanted to find ZIP Codes with concentrations of wealthy non-Haitian French-language speaking families.

Wharton School Real Estate students, under contract to Philadelphia-area developers, have prepared

numerous development plans using small-area decennial census data and economic census data for ZIP Codes.

An entrepreneur, working with the Wharton SBDC, was referred to me for assistance in characterizing the socio-economic status of large women, so she could design and market appropriate clothing lines for large women.

Community organizations, and Penn students assisting community organizations, have made extensive use of small-area census data. For instance:

Identifying blocks and block groups with concentrations of school-age children to focus noise, curfew, and nuisance abatement efforts in Powelton Village, a West Philadelphia neighborhood.

Socioeconomic profiles of Haddington and Squirrel Hill neighborhoods, to facilitate community block grant funds and other financial assistance.

Demographic, socioeconomic profiles as well as crime statistics to evaluate community programs for crime control in Philadelphia neighborhoods.

Every Penn undergraduate and graduate Nursing School student must take a "community nursing" course that requires service in a Philadelphia-area clinic or service unit. Every student must conduct a "community assessment," using field walking as well as decennial census data, economic census data, and other data sources.

"Neighborhood demographics" and other small-area census data contributed to the Spruce Hill Community Development Plan, which received the Pennsylvania Planning Association's (PPA) top award for "comprehensive planning by a small community" in 1996.

Numerous site-specific studies use small-area Census Bureau data to support development proposals and community studies. Examples of these include:

(1) Philadelphia Navy Yard site.

(2) Publicker Distillery brownfield site.

(3) Jack Frost sugar refinery brownfield site.

(4) Quaker Lace factory site.

Annual population estimates, decennial census population counts, and annual projections for metropolitan areas, counties, and minor civil divisions have been used together for a number of projects:

Pennsylvania Economy League study on Philadelphia's entrepreneurial climate needed these data and migration data for Atlanta, Boston, New York, Philadelphia, and Pittsburgh.

Wharton School Real estate department study on cities with legalized gambling needed these data, unemployment data, migration data, local government finance data, and crime data for specific municipalities and counties nationwide.

City Planning faculty and students have used these data, journey-to-work data (mostly from Census Transportation Planning Package), and current housing value and employment data from other sources to project new routes for mass transit in the Philadelphia SMSA. Some of this research has been funded by US Department of Transportation to develop a computationally-fast model for regional mass transit planning capable of being applied to regions across the U.S. These projects and others deriving from ISTEA 1991 and Clean Air Amendment of 1990 are conducted through Penn's Urban Simulation Lab.

Maurice J. Forrester
SEDA-COG

In connection with the preparation of a proposal to be submitted to the Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry, the Mid-State Employment and Training Consortium made extensive use (through SEDA-COG) of both population estimates AND population Projections.

In connection with the preparation of a four-page flyer, "Central Pennsylvania Business Patterns," SEDA-COG itself drew heavily on the information available in the latest edition of the Census Bureau's "County Business Patterns."

When developing a Business Plan for the Central Region of Team PA, SEDA-COG made use of county level population estimates to justify the allocation of responsibilities among the various regional Team PA partners.

Let me note also that, in my opinion, once the new population projections are formally established, there are likely to be many requests for that information for a variety of purposes. People that I know of have been tending to avoid population projections lately because of the unavailability of recently developed figures.

Fritz Brock
Lehigh Valley Planning Commission

Companies use census data in their business plans.

School districts use census data in the updates to their school district plans that are mandated by the Pennsylvania Department of Education.

Population projections are used by our agency to forecast future traffic demand and in other transportation planning activities.

Population projections are used in our long-range land use planning for Lehigh and Northampton Counties.

We get many requests for the most current population estimates and population projections.

Daniel C. Pennick
Centre County Planning Commission

The Centre County Transportation Authority recently completed an update of their public transit plan that used Census journey to work data as a component in developing future transit needs.

The local SCORE (Senior Corporate Retired Executives) uses Census data routinely in assisting small businesses develop Business Plans and Marketing Plans.

Interstate 99 is a highway project that will be going through the county by the year 2005. Population estimates and population projections (developed by the County Planning Office using Census Data) were used by Penn DOT Consultants as a base for determining future secondary impacts as a result of I-99 being constructed.

Human Resource agencies use population projections all the time in preparing grant applications and determining where services are needed. The Age cohort projections are used by the Office of Aging in preparing their County budget estimates for future years.

Jonathan Johnson
Center for Rural Pennsylvania

In the summer of 1997, the Federal Communication Commission (FCC) established the Universal Service Access Fund for schools, libraries, and rural health facilities, as called for in the 1996 Telecommunications Act. The fund will provide higher discount rates for telecommunication services in rural areas. Critical to the funding formula is the determination that an area is "rural." The FCC definition of "rural," however, excluded nine predominately rural counties in Pennsylvania. Working with the Pennsylvania Public Utilities Commission (PUC), Pennsylvania Rural Development Council, Pennsylvania Office of Rural Health, and others, the Center for Rural Pennsylvania developed a more effective definition of "rural." Using U.S. Census Bureau data and depicting that information graphically, this coalition of groups was successful in getting the Fcc to reconsider its earlier definition. PUC has filed a waiver for exception; other states, also adversely affected by the rural definition, are filing their own exceptions based on the Pennsylvania precedent.

The Center for Rural Pennsylvania spearheaded an analysis of the Pennsylvania Main Street Program operated by the Department of community and Economic Development (DCED). Using data from the Censuses of retail Trade and Service Industries as well as other U.S. Census Bureau data, the Center developed a methodology to clearly measure how effective the program has been in improving downtown commercial areas. This information and analysis was used by the DCED to restructure and improve the program. For the first time in its history, the Main Street Program received line-item funding in the state's annual budget.

The U.S. Census Bureau's age cohort estimates for 1996 were used to identify population trends within rural Pennsylvania. Estimates showed that the state's rural areas were increasing in population; however, planners in a number of rural counties needed to know what types of people were moving in. Using the estimated age cohort data, the Center for Rural Pennsylvania was able to identify the return of the so-called "baby boomers" to rural areas. Between 1990 and 1996, the number of persons between thirty-two and fifty years old increased six percent, while the total rural population increased only four percent. This information has been used to help school districts and county planning offices better prepare for the needs of these new residents.

Among state and local decision makers, there has been a perception that western rural Pennsylvania was still suffering from economic decline and population out-migration. Using U.S. Census Bureau population estimates, the Center for rural Pennsylvania was able to statistically show that this region is actually on the rebound. Between 1990 and 1996, western rural Pennsylvania had a population increase faster than the state rate. In addition, employment is up as are new business starts. This information has helped removing some of the stereotypes about the region.

U.S. Census Bureau's population estimates have been used by numerous municipal and county governments and economic development groups to develop a clearer picture of changes within their jurisdictions. Some specific examples include: Union County Planning Commission, Cumberland County Controller's Office, Kane Chamber of Commerce, Potter County Chamber of Commerce, Tamaqua Area 2004 Partnership, and Rural Leadership (RULE), to name just a few.

Betty Stammerjohn
Community Action Southwest

A private consultant conducting an environmental hazards assessment requested census data on the number of persons with mobility impairment and the number of persons in group quarters for specific census tracts in the Greater Washington City area.

A special community task force comprised of local government, child-focused organizations, health organizations and other human service agencies used municipal population and housing data to develop a profile of areas in Washington and Greene Counties with high risk for lead poisoning and target lead poisoning prevention activities. Information included: total population, total children under five, children under five below poverty, total housing units, total housing units by year built, and total housing units by tenure by year built.

As an agency, we use census data - county, municipal and other levels - to help develop needs assessments for federal and state funding applications (sometimes information required by federal agencies such as HHS) and work plans. We use mostly population data - income and poverty, race, population by age, housing, etc. We also use economic census data.

Population estimates - private citizen need for municipal level population estimates for specific municipalities in Washington County to target growth areas for a business development plan.

CAS uses municipal population estimates and projections to target new program development and expansion of programs - including the Head Start program which requires a needs assessment every year with updated info, and the WIC program which requires an updated assessment and community profile each year.

For special note: probably ninety percent of the data we provide to our own programs and to other non-profits is because the federal government requires the data for an assessment or profile. Last year the Department of Health (federal) required specific census data, 1990 and estimates, as part of the Healthy Start application package. I will note that some of the data was not available at the time (i.e., 1993 poverty estimates - which were released a month after the due date and did not include estimates for children under age five)!

Bill Gustin
Slippery Rock University

We use census data in a variety of ways. Since southwestern Pennsylvania has an interest in economic redevelopment and has been an area in which deaths have been exceeding births and has been suffering from a high level of out-migration, both local government and members of the private sector have been interested in changes that are occurring in the local counties on an annual basis. We have participated in studies of poverty in southwestern Pennsylvania, as well as analyses of the changes in population and income in the Mon-Valley as well as counties like Fayette and Greene. At the university level, we have performed analyses of the changing demographic characteristics of western Pennsylvania and their effects on recruitment and growth at California University of Pennsylvania. We have also used projections of population in southwestern Pennsylvania to ascertain areas of likely growth and decline in the population and economy of the region. This is of special concern here, as we are in the process of developing a new Strategic Plan for the university, and we also assist economic redevelopment efforts in the Monongahela Valley through the university Mon-Valley Renaissance office.